After much look at the long range pattern over the past few days, I decided to write about this upcoming system. However, the pattern for this developing system have rapidly changed over the past 24-36hrs. At this time, I will be brief with my discussion as the scenario will slightly shift tomorrow. With that said, a very slight shift in low track will cause significant differences in what I have to say at this time.
After review of the 18Z Canadian, GFS, and NAM runs. I am tending to favor a combination of the GFS and Canadian. Their output for this system is .25″ water equivalent for Thursday. With a mix of sleet and snow expected, I am going with an initial forecast of 2-3″ of snow across the Burlington, VT vicinity. I personally think the NAM is way overdoing it with water equivalent precip totals near .75″. High temperatures for Thursday are expected to peak between 32F-35F (likely more toward the top of that range). The model I produce currently goes out to Thursday morning, so I have not been able to factor in what that has to say. Knowing the model I have produced, it will likely give an output somewhere between the GFS and NAM with slight favoring toward the NAM.
For Thursday, we can expect precipitation to begin between the 6-8AM time frame across the Burlington, VT vicinity. Precipitation will likely start as all snow and then shift to a mix from 10-5PM.
Pending the changes that I see in the models tomorrow, I may write a more detailed update.