12/24/10 PM Discussion on December 26-27 2010 Nor’easter

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As I write this latest model guidance is starting to trickle in. The latest NAM is in and I’m just not convinced on any of the guidance. Both the 12Z and 18Z NAM area looking to take the low center right over or just East of Cape Cod for Monday morning. 12Z and 18Z GFS are a little slower with the low center for Monday morning. The GFS itself has the low center closer toward Montauk on Long Island. Compared to yesterday, the wrap-around precip field is now stronger and I just don’t buy it. The dynamics of this system are just not convincing. The only driving feature to this system is all the vorticity at 500mb. It has a strong disadvantage to it being “vertically stacked.”

Since it’s Christmas Eve, I’m going to keep this short and repost after dinner on Christmas Day. Right now, areas like New Jersey, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and E’rn Massachusetts are not out of the woods yet for the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Unfortunately for us Vermonters, I still don’t buy us getting a lot of snow. I still think this system is going to kick out to sea and not be a more inland type Nor’easter where we’d get dumped on. The dynamics just aren’t there and the storm would have to deepen faster and have the high over the N’rn Plains to weaken to allow to low to shift W’ward.

This system has been very tricky regardless of my 6 years of professional experience with forecasting. My gut instinct with all this is that it will still push out to sea. I’m going to closely examine the 12Z runs on the 25th and possibly the 18Z runs as well. I personally am not a fan of 06Z and 18Z runs, but that’s just me. Stay tuned for the latest!

For readers in the Burlington, VT vicinity, please view my forecast. Merry Christmas to all who celebrate the holiday.

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